deals
Tesla–SpaceX’s $3.5T Merger Talk Is Elon Musk’s Biggest Test Yet
$3.5 trillion is too big to call a synergy story. A Tesla–SpaceX merger would test whether independent boards can protect investors from Elon Musk’s empire.
Clear thinking on business, technology, and what’s next.
Independent analysis from Blake Colman on markets, artificial intelligence, technology, deals and the global spirits industry.
Latest dispatches
markets
NAR’s 7.3% Home-Sales Collapse Is the 7.40% Mortgage-Rate Warning
America’s housing market isn’t cooling. It’s being strangled: signed home contracts just fell 7.3% in one month as 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.40%.
tech-ai
SpaceX’s $19.6B AI Capex Bought $431M in Profit. That’s Not a Win Yet
SpaceX spent $19.6 billion in one quarter to produce $431 million of AI operating profit. That isn’t an AI gold rush. It’s a very expensive promise.
tech-ai
Nvidia’s $35B China Chip Orders Are Not a Win. They’re a Panic Buy
China’s biggest tech firms just tried to spend more than $35 billion on Nvidia chips they may barely receive. That is not confidence. It is what a supply-constrained arms race looks like.
leadership
Microsoft Xbox’s 3,200-Job Reset Is What a Real Turnaround Looks Like
If your business needs 3,200 job cuts to survive, the layoffs are not the strategy. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma’s real test is whether she can turn ruthless simplification into better products.
deals
Salesforce’s $5.66B Braze Deal: Warning for SaaS Founders
Salesforce just paid $5.66 billion because building software customers genuinely love is harder than buying it. If your product owns a critical workflow, the big players eventually notice.
marketing
Shaq’s $100M Brand Lesson: Own the Asset Before You Buy the Ads
Most founders spend a fortune buying attention for brands they don’t actually own. Shaq turned that mistake into a $100 million lesson.
tech-ai
Nscale’s $45B Anthropic Deal Would Double Down on AI’s Biggest Bet
A $45 billion AI-compute deal is not proof of demand. It is proof that Anthropic and Nscale are willing to bet the farm before the revenue turns up.
markets
CoreWeave’s $50B Debt Is the AI Boom’s First Proper Stress Test
A company with roughly $50 billion in debt just made the AI trade look less like a revolution and more like a margin loan. CoreWeave isn’t the whole story, but it is the bill arriving on the table.
deals
Tradeweb’s $1.97B Trumid Deal Buys the Bond Trade Before It Exists
Tradeweb just paid $1.97 billion for Trumid because the best financial businesses don’t own transactions. They own the workflow before the transaction happens.
leadership
Better.com’s 52.02% Founder Revolt Is a Boardroom Failure, Not a Comeback
A founder removed as CEO in August used 52.02% of Better.com’s voting power to sack five directors. If your succession plan can be reversed in two months, you never had one.
sports-business
NBA’s $76B Deal Hits Year 2: NBC’s Oct. 20 Tripleheader Is the Real Test
$76 billion does not buy attention. The NBA sold a weekly habit — and NBC, Peacock and Amazon now have to prove fans will show up on schedule.